Browsing 2. Computational International Relations by Author "Choucri, Nazli"
Now showing items 1-20 of 25
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Alternative futures: An exercise in forecasting
(© W.H. Freeman & Company, 1987) -
Analyzing oil production in developing countries: A case study of Egypt
(© International Association for Energy Economics, 1990)This article presents a detailed simulation analysis of the domestic oil sector in Egypt; a near-typical, non-OPEC, oil-producing developing country. Egypt is a small producer by international standards, yet significant ... -
Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations
(© Peace Science Society (International) Papers., 1973)The apparent neglect of quantitative methodology in political analysis can be explained partly by the absence of a common paradigm or frame of reference for political inquiry and partly by the lack of experience with ... -
Applications of econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations
(© W.H. Freeman & Company, 1978)This chapter examines some key issues and difficulties encountered in the course of applying econometric analysis to forecasting in international relations. We will note the problems involved and the solutions adopted, and ... -
An assessment of documentation standards for ten computer models of political problems
(© Zakład Narodowy Imienia Ossolińskich, 1978) -
Background conditions to the outbreak of the First World War
(© Peace Research Society (International) Papers, 1968)This paper focuses on a comparative analysis of the attributes and capa- bilities of the major European states between the years 1870-1914. When war broke out in the summer of 1914 it was largely unexpected. The bipolarization ... -
Domestic energy pricing: Trends and implications for the Arab world
(© International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development (ICEED), 1985)Energy use everywhere is tied to population growth, industrialization, expansion of urban centers, and development of industrial and infrastructural facilities. The decade of the 1970s saw dramatic changes in the economic ... -
The energy policy project: Petroleum and natural gas in Egypt
(© Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Cairo University, 1983)This study is undertaken as part of the Energy and Development Research Program at M.I.T. under the direction of Professor Choucri. It is designed to Contribute to understanding energy-economy interactions in development ... -
Forecasting in international relations: Problems and prospects
(© Gorden and Breach Science Publishers Ltd., 1974)The author argues that forecasting is a problem of reasoning, of reducing uncertainty, and of bounded speculation, and she identifies four types of forecasting goals: (1) understanding the unknown (i.e., prophecy), (2) ... -
In search of peace systems: Scandinavia and the Netherlands, 1870-1970
(© Sage Publications, 1972) -
International changes in the world oil market: A simulation perspective
(© International Political Science Association, 1982-10-01)The oil price increases of October 1973 triggered a set of changes in the international system that promise to have continued, long-term effects. This article begins with a review of the major attempts to model the world ... -
The international petroleum exchange model: Reference results and validation
(© Elsevier B.V., 1980-06)The author describes the IPE model and compares its main results with the data for 1970–1978. The model's results are close to the actual consumer-import demand for those years. The model's forecasts of the future demand ... -
Key issues in international relations forecasting
(© W.H. Freeman & Company, 1978) -
Organizational innovation: Global workflow and institutional e-Networking
(© Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2007) -
Research initiative to understand & model state stability: Exploiting system dynamics.
(© The System Dynamics Society, 2005)The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that the institutions charted with protecting ...national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to ... -
Resource scarcity and foreign policy: A simulation model of international conflict
(© Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1972)This paper describes the initial stages of an interdisciplinary research project designed to trace the effects of domestic resource needs and scarcities in advanced technological societies upon international behavior. Our ... -
Short-run energy-economy interactions in Egypt
(© Elsevier B.V., 1984-08)This paper discusses the short-run adjustment mechanism of the Egyptian economy to changes in the domestic price of oil. The effects of oil price increases have been analysed in the framework of a short-run macroeconomic ... -
Simulation models
(© Elsevier B.V., 1990-03)This paper summarizes some basic assumptions and procedures for simulation approaches. A brief discussion of system dynamics is presented. A description of the International Petroleum Exchange Model (IPE) developed at MIT ... -
System dynamics forecasting in international relations
(© W.H. Freeman & Company, 1978)
