International energy futures: Petroleum prices, power and payments

Abstract

This book, with the collaboration of David Scot Ross and Brian Pollins, constructs the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) as a system dynamics model to explore a set of propositions about future price, politics, and market configurations. Central to the analyses is the role of strategic vulnerability as a distinct variable that influences and is influenced by interactions among producers and consumers in a changing market.

The book is in four parts. Part I reviews the politics of the international petroleum trade. Part II is the intellectual core of the book and focuses on the analytical structure of the IPE model and on the simulation results of interactions among key actors. Part III appraises the model’s results and their implications. Part IV puts forth some tentative assessments of the model’s predictive capacities and highlights alternative prospects for various energy policies given different price situations.