Nations in conflict: National growth and international violence

Abstract

Each equation in the model represents a “piece” of a dynamic system of simultaneous equations, with the variables signaling the individual factors shaping the overall dynamics over time. Rendered in the form of an econometric model, the system consists of (a) growth and expansion, (b) intersection and collision national of interests, (c) military competition leading to greater military expenditures, (d) alliances and counter-alliances and (e) evidence of violent behavior – all constituting the escalating dynamics of a conflict spiral that, almost inevitably, results in war.