Dynamic energy system modeling - interfuel competition

Abstract

This work reports the formulation, development, validation, and applications of a medium to long range dynamic model for interfuel competition in the aggregated U. S. The economic cost structure, investment decisions, and physical constraints are included specifically in the supply models for coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear fuels, as well as in the consuming sectors residential and commercial, industrial processing, transportation and electricity. The model simulates the development of supply, the fuel selection process in the consuming sectors, the depletion of the resources, and resolves these into fuels consumed cost-price trends in the energy markets of the U. S. The validation issue is addressed at length through a number of considerations, including comparing the model performance to past reported behavior of the energy system. it is applied to a series of scenarios or case studies to assess the impact of a variety of technologies, policy considerations, and postulated occurrences on the future energy outlook. Here it is seen the model can be a useful tool, forcing a consistent assessment of possible future trends. The model is useful for depicting the effects of policy or hypothesized changes in our energy economy in a complete system framework.