A process for improving long-term production planning

Abstract

This project presents improvements to the business process used to generate the Sikorsky five-year production scheduling plan that is a central coordinating process for company operations. Recommendations will improve the speed and quality of the planning process. The current production planning method leaves Sikorsky at risk of reserving too little capacity to satisfy demand for its most important customers. Additionally, the current method can lead to overproduction of rotorcraft. Both scenarios are very costly to Sikorsky. In the absence of a more data-driven planning approach, shortcomings of the current planning method will only be exacerbated as Sikorsky continues to pursue new customers in emerging markets. Sikorsky may struggle to continue applying judgment-based planning methods to a customer base for which there is little historical information. To investigate the problem, we used interviews, surveys, and lean techniques to study the current state of the five-year planning process. As part of the solution, we developed and applied statistical demand forecasting methods and a more formal process definition. We documented and communicated the new planning process using standard work templates and instructions. New methods were disseminated to stakeholders through a variety of showcase exercises that featured demonstrations and hands-on exercises. In general, Sikorsky production planning stakeholders were receptive to a more formal and datadriven planning process. We expect that the new methods will enable an overall planning process time of two weeks, compared to current process time of several months. Furthermore, the new methods improve forecasting accuracy by integrating and synthesizing previously unused forward-looking sales and marketing data. Going forward, a small pilot team will continue to apply and improve new planning methods. The team will engage in a preliminary pilot exercise during an upcoming revision to the five-year plan, which will occur in early 2011.