| dc.description.abstract | This white paper reports emerging findings at the end of Phase I of the Lean Aircraft
Initiative in the Policy focus group area. Specifically, it provides details about research on
program instability. Its objective is to discuss high-level findings detailing: 1) the relative
contribution of different factors to a program’s overall instability; 2) the cost impact of program
instability on acquisition programs; and 3) some strategies recommended by program managers for
overcoming and/or mitigating the negative effects of program instability on their programs.
Because this report comes as this research is underway, this is not meant to be a definitive
document on the subject. Rather, is it anticipated that this research may potentially produce a
number of reports on program instability-related topics.
The government managers of military acquisition programs rated annual budget or
production rate changes, changes in requirements, and technical difficulties as the three top
contributors, respectively, to program instability. When asked to partition actual variance in their
program’s planned cost and schedule to each of these factors, it was found that the combined
effects of unplanned budget and requirement changes accounted for 5.2% annual cost growth and
20% total program schedule slip. At a rate of approximately 5% annual cost growth from these
factors, it is easy to see that even conservative estimates of the cost benefits to be gained from
acquisition reforms and process improvements can quickly be eclipsed by the added cost associated
with program instability.
Program management practices involving the integration of stakeholders from throughout
the value chain into the decision making process were rated the most effective at avoiding program
instability. The use of advanced information technologies was rated the most effective at mitigating
the negative impact of program instability. | en |
